The futures prices of the domestic aluminum ingot market have fallen gradually since reaching a high price of RMB 20,900/ton in mid-1995. The market pattern of oversupply is already an indisputable fact. With the price of aluminum ingots continuing to slump, there is still much room for decline in aluminum prices, which is the focus of many market participants.
The production cost of aluminum ingots
The production cost refers to the sum of the material information and labor remuneration paid out by a certain amount of a certain commodity produced by a company, that is, the C+V part of the commodity value composition. Let us first analyze the material cost of aluminum ingots:
There are three types of material data consumed by aluminum smelters to produce aluminum ingots: 1?Alumina; 2?Electricity cost; 3?Anode paste (anode carbon block). There are also fluoride salts, but they cost less, generally costing 200-300 yuan per ton of aluminum ingot. The following mainly analyzes the cost of the above three substances in the recent market price:
1. Alumina cost
In general, each ton of aluminum ingot needs to consume 2 tons of alumina. With more and more manufacturers adopting advanced technology and strengthening technological transformation, most manufacturers currently consume one ton of aluminum ingot and consume about 1.93 tons of alumina. Between ~ 1.98 tons, although this ratio will continue to decline with the efforts of various manufacturers, the rate of decline will be small, which we can understand as constant. In this way, the price change of alumina determines the cost in this area. At present, the market price of alumina is maintained at around 2,100 yuan. We take a cost of 1.95 tons of aluminum ingot for each ton of aluminum ingot production. We can calculate that the current consumption of alumina is about 4,100 yuan.
2. Electricity cost
The cost of this part involves two variables, one is the price of electricity per degree of electricity; the other is the amount of electricity consumed for each ton of aluminum ingot produced. The electrolytic aluminum industry consumes a lot of electricity. Due to the difference in production technology and equipment level, each manufacturer has a large difference in electricity consumption for each ton of aluminum ingot. At present, it is generally between 14000kwh and 16000kwh. We take most of the manufacturer's consumption. The median value of electricity is 15000kwh, and the average electricity price of domestic electrolytic aluminum producers in the past two years is about 0.34 yuan, so the electricity cost per ton of aluminum ingot is about 5100 yuan.
3. Anode carbon block (anode paste) cost
Currently the world's electrolyzer tanks are divided into self-baking tanks and pre-baking tanks. Correspondingly, the carbon anode used in the self-roasting tank is called the anode paste, and the carbon anode used in the pre-baking tank is called the anode carbon block. Since the anode carbon block must be first calcined, there are many processes, so the anode carbon block The price is relatively high. At present, the market price of one ton of anode paste is around 1400 yuan, while the price of one ton of anode carbon block is around 3,000 yuan. Each ton of aluminum ingot is consumed by 0.54 ton of anode paste from the furnace, and the pre-baking tank consumes 0.6. Ton, according to which one ton of aluminum ingot costs 770 yuan for anode paste and 1800 yuan for anode carbon, we take the average of the two. The cost of this is 1280 yuan.
In summary, we can conclude that the average social raw material cost per domestic ton of aluminum ingot produced is 250 (fluorinated salt, etc.) + 4100 (alumina cost) + 5100 (electricity cost) + 1280 (positive paste cost) = 10,730 yuan. This is only a relatively basic direct material cost in the manufacturing cost, and a company must pay the salaries, management fees, financial expenses and sales expenses of the company staff, amortize the depreciation expense of the machine factory, bank loan interest, and must be paid for simple social reproduction. Taxes, etc., should all be included in the company's production costs. At present, the cost of domestic enterprises accounts for about 20% of the total production cost of aluminum ingots. According to the recent aluminum ingot market price of 13,400 yuan/ton, the cost in this area should be around 2680.
Analysis of Material Price Changes in the Production Cost Structure of Aluminum Ingots
1. Analysis of Price Changes of Alumina
In recent years, the price of alumina has fluctuate more frequently, with higher prices appearing at RMB 3,300 between August and September 1995. The lower prices have reached around RMB 1600, and most of the time, the prices stay at RMB 2,000/T to RMB 2400. /T between.
The price of alumina is determined by its value and is affected by the relationship between supply and demand. China's alumina industry adopts three methods: sintering method, hybrid method, and Bayer method. Among them, hybrid method accounts for 69.4% and sintering method accounts for 20.2%. The Bayer process accounts for 10.4%, and their respective unit manufacturing costs are shown in Table 1.
According to the weighted average method, we draw a conclusion that the current domestic unit cost for producing alumina is about 1,453 yuan per ton. If we add some other costs, the domestic alumina production cost will be around 1600 yuan per ton. In Western countries, more than 90% of the production of alumina is based on the Bayer process, and its average production cost is around US$150/ton. Compared with domestic and international markets, alumina in western countries is more competitive, but the price difference is not great.
After more than 40 years of construction, China has built six major alumina production bases (another name is the five major alumina bases. Since the Zhengzhou Aluminum Plant and the Zhongchuan Aluminum Plant are both under the jurisdiction of China Great Wall Aluminum Corporation, it is regarded as the same base. ) Their production methods, 1998 production capacity, existing production capacity, and regular production capacity are shown in Table 2.
Due to large investment in alumina industry, long investment recovery period and limited distribution of bauxite resources, local governments are unable to invest and are reluctant to invest. Domestic alumina is mainly supplied by the six major alumina bases and has basically reached or basically reached With capacity, some companies have even surpassed existing capacity designs. The two companies that will be expanded from now to 2000 will be unable to build on time due to limited funds. The new alumina resources in the country are relatively limited. The output of alumina in 1999 is expected to be 3.65 million tons. In 1998, domestic aluminum ingots had reached 2.42 million tons. In 1999, the output would exceed 2.5 million tons. There would be no problem. According to the ratio of 2 tons of alumina per ton of electrolytic aluminum production, the demand will exceed 5 million tons. With 10% domestic alumina used in non-metallurgical industries such as medicine and light industry, the supply and demand gap of alumina will reach around 1.5 million tons, and the gap in this part can only be compensated by imports. In this way, changes in the prices of international alumina and the countryâ€™s foreign trade policies will directly affect the prices of domestic alumina. As the prices of aluminum ingots in the international market are currently at a low level, some western aluminum manufacturers have recently announced the suspension of production or production cuts. It is expected that the prices of international alumina will remain at a low level, and the country will base on the fact that Chinaâ€™s import volume is large and that it will join the WTO. In preparation for the organization, it will not rush to adopt policies to raise tariffs; on the other hand, in the face of high production costs of aluminum ingot manufacturers, the national industry authorities will not substantially increase the price of alumina.
2. Analysis of changes in electricity cost
The cost of electricity in China accounts for about 40% of the production cost of aluminum ingots, which is a long way from the 25% of the cost of electricity in Western countries. In today's increasingly strong international and domestic markets, if the proportion of electricity costs to production costs does not fall, it will inevitably endanger the survival and development of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry.
One variable involved in the cost of electricity charges is the price of electricity per unit. The average electricity price in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is about 0.34 yuan, which is twice that of foreign counterparts. It is difficult to change the technical equipment level of most domestic manufacturers. Next, the quicker way to reduce the cost of electricity bills is to reduce electricity prices. At present, the demand of the electrolytic aluminum industry for lowering the price of electricity is very high, but this involves the electric power sector and requires the country to make overall arrangements. While expecting the power sector to reduce electricity prices, many electrolytic aluminum producers actively engage in aluminum power joint ventures, and the entire industry presents a trend of aluminum plants running small power plants, large power plants running small aluminum plants, electrolytic aluminum plants and power plants.
Another way to reduce the cost of electricity bills is to reduce the electricity consumption per aluminum ingot. Electrolytic aluminum electrolyzers are divided into self-roasting tanks and pre-baked tanks. Compared with the self-roasting tanks, the self-roasting tanks have the advantages of mature technology, low investment, and quick results. The old enterprises and the newly introduced SMEs generally use this type of electrolysis. At present, half of China's aluminum ingot production is produced by the relatively backward self-baking cell. However, this process has obvious defects: first, the flue gas is open and discharged, which seriously endangers the ecological environment and the physical and mental health of workers. Followed by backward technical indicators, high power consumption; the third is a small output, low degree of automation. Prebaked tanks, on the other hand, have the opposite characteristics of small environmental pollution, high technical specifications, low power consumption, and high degree of automation. Only one power consumption is required. Each ton of pre-baked aluminum ingots consumes more than 1,000 degrees less electricity than a self-baked cell.
3. Anode carbon block cost change analysis
With the introduction of the market requirements for self-baked cells into pre-baked cells and the introduction of the national policy of not being allowed to start self-baking cells in the past three years, carbon plants that produce anode pastes and anode carbon blocks will face a gradual reduction in anode paste demand and anode carbon The gradual increase in market demand for block demand. From this point of view, the cost in this area will increase slightly, but it will take a process to transform the self-baking tank into a pre-baking tank, and at the same time it needs to face the carbon supply plant's expansion of the supply of anode carbon block capacity. The conditions for rising prices in a short period of time do not yet exist, and the proportion of costs in this area will not change much.