The photovoltaic industry is struggling for a year to come.

Abstract Editor's note: Although the "end of the world" has not come, but for China's photovoltaic industry, the "magic" of overcapacity, the "double-reverse" of Europe and the United States is a big stick, making it...
Editor's note: Although the "end of the world" has not come, but for China's photovoltaic industry, the "magic" of overcapacity, the "double opposition" of Europe and the United States, made it a thrilling experience in 2012. "Doomsday crisis." However, if 2012 is positioned as the disaster year for Chinese PV companies, then it can also be positioned as the first year of the domestic PV market. In particular, all kinds of new policies at the end of the year have been concentrated on the domestic market. It seems that the new "spring" of the photovoltaic industry has already dawned.

There is very little industry. Just like China’s solar energy, in just a few weeks, there has been a reversal from “industrial winter” to “star of tomorrow”, even if this change only stays in brokerage research and media news. Within the scope, it is enough to make people excited.

All of this happened because the management expressed more and more supportive attitudes towards the solar industry, especially on December 19th, the release intensity of the signal reached a peak. Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over the State Council executive meeting to study and determine the policy measures to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. Among the five policy measures identified, it has included the core issues of “focusing on promoting distributed photovoltaic power generation and setting the benchmark price of PV power plants in different regions according to resource conditions”. For a time, the solar industry is rejoicing.

Good news at home and abroad

In 2012, China's solar energy industry experienced a major negative impact such as the US “double opposition”, European “anti-dumping” investigation, and the decline in installed capacity in Italy. The product price continued its downward trend in 2011.

This situation directly led to the price of polysilicon falling by more than 90% from the price of 400 US dollars/kg three years ago, and 90% of enterprises stopped production or even closed down. At the same time, the price of PV modules has dropped from US$0.95/W at the beginning of 2012 to US$0.66/W at the beginning of November. As a result, the profits of upstream and downstream enterprises in various fields of solar energy have fallen sharply. Take the three quarterly reports as an example. The net profit of most solar listed companies has dropped by more than 50%. For example, LDK, Wuxi Suntech and other industry leaders are caught in the dilemma caused by “high debt”.

"The third quarter may be the worst time for PV companies this year. Take our own example, the shipments in the quarter are only about 500 megawatts." Wang Zhixin, head of the publicity department of Yingli Group, told the "Securities Daily" reporter.

In this most crisisful moment, in order to save the solar industry, the management's series of new policies began to exert their strength.

In September this year, the National Energy Administration issued the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development” as the starting point. In October, the State Grid Corporation issued the “Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Grid-connected Services for Distributed Photovoltaic Generation”; National Energy in November The bureau completed the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry", "Implementation Measures for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Demonstration Zones and Electricity Price Subsidy Standards" and other opinions; after that, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the National Energy Administration decided A batch of “Golden Sun” demonstration projects will be launched before the end of this year; on December 11, the state announced the second batch of “Golden Sun” projects, totaling 3.83GW.

In Wang Zhixin's view, "the management's series of new policies are all major positives for the industry, and especially the "Golden Sun" is the most direct and most effective." Relevant persons of Hanergy Group also told the "Securities Daily" reporter that "the second batch of "Golden Sun" gave time is more urgent. As soon as we got the news, we immediately started the organization of the application materials, and the company attached great importance to it. ".

It is worth mentioning that, while the domestic PV support new policy continues to fall, the international PV market is also promising.

Based on recent overseas market news, Germany plans to increase electricity prices by 13% in 2013 to subsidize new energy sources; while Japan's PV policy has stimulated rapid growth in installed capacity.

The data shows that the global solar installed capacity in the first half of this year was about 13GW, an increase of 25%. According to past experience, the installed capacity in the second half of the year is usually faster than the first half. Therefore, some people in the industry expect that the global installed capacity in the second half of 2012 should be above 17GW, and the annual solar installed capacity is around 30GW. Based on this calculation, even in 2012, this photovoltaic “cold winter”, the global PV installed capacity will continue to grow.

Industry is warming up, beware of "re-madness"

In fact, for the construction of photovoltaic power plants, there have been two major problems, one is the problem of grid connection, and the other is the intensity of subsidies.

In the relevant policies issued by the state a few days ago, the State Grid has clearly stated that it accepts photovoltaic power plants with installed capacity less than 6MW, thus eliminating the problem of grid connection to some extent. On the other hand, according to the current distributed photovoltaic power generation demonstration zone The subsidy of 0.4-0.6 yuan/kWh in the Implementation Measures and Electricity Price Subsidy Standards, the industry speculates that this intensity can bring about 10% yield to PV power plants in some areas of China.

In this regard, GF Securities (000776, shares it) research report pointed out that in the period of very difficult component sales, the simultaneous landing of the grid and subsidies will bring rapid growth opportunities for distributed photovoltaic power generation. It is expected that distributed photovoltaic power generation will see rapid growth in 2013. With the promotion of domestic distributed photovoltaic power generation in 2013, the total installed capacity of domestic PV will be between 7-8GW.

On this basis, as the upstream of the industry, the “shuffle” in the polysilicon field in 2013 is also expected to end.

First of all, according to the global demand of 35GW in 2013, the demand for polysilicon per watt is 6g, and the global demand for polysilicon is 220,000 tons. However, according to current incomplete statistics, the effective production capacity of polysilicon in the world in 2013 is still above 220,000 tons.

In addition, in the industry's view, the polysilicon producers that have been discontinued in 2012 will be completely eliminated due to the high cost of re-opening production capacity and excess capacity, which will lead to the stabilization of polysilicon prices and the end of industry consolidation. .

Nowadays, the management's initiatives for the photovoltaic industry are all crucial to the industry. This makes the market and the industry look forward to PV in 2013, but at the same time, the National Center for Climate Change Strategy Research and the Director of the International Cooperation Center, Li Junfeng, secretary-general of the Renewable Energy Committee of the China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association, also warned us at all times. In his view, "while introducing favorable policies, we must also grasp the rhythm and orderly, otherwise the photovoltaic industry It’s going crazy again.”

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